Monthly Maximum Rainfall Cmip5 Frequency Analysis in the Atlantic Southeast Hydrographic Region (PAP014910)

Código

PAP014910

Autores

SAULO AIRES DE SOUZA, MARCIO TAVARES NOBREGA

Tema

Floods in a changing climate

Resumo

Floods are certainly one of the most socio-economic impacting phenomena likely to happen. Despite their ordinary occurrence all over Brazilian territory, floods have been notoriously deleterious in the Atlantic Southeast hydrographic region, taken here as study case, where in the last few decades many was the time they eventuate casualties, not to mention exorbitant hazards in fields as various as agriculture, transport and urban environment (cities). Surely floods are the result of rainfall events, which saturate watersheds to the point of generating these high flows, therefore, to understand future flood events patterns one must issue rainfall behavior, adding to the challenge of grasping the arcana of current rainfall the growing concern of non-stationarity, not only in terms of variability, but considering climate change as well. In such way statistical frequency analysis was applied to assess the outcome of maximum rainfall in climate projections made available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). For both scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for all the global circulation models were investigated, following this a rank definition of the bests amongst them was performed. In spite of the conundrum resulting from so many assumptions made by such complex global circulation models, results point out to an increase both in the flood frequency as well in the precipitated rainfall volume, thus demanding planning and management measures so as to mitigate the impacts, as long as hazardous forecasts are proved to be accurate.