ICFM6 - International Conference On Flood Management

Data: 17/09/2014 à 19/09/2014
Local: São Paulo - Brazil

Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard and Adaptation Measures (PAP014722)

Autores

Mitja Brilly

Tema

Floods in a changing climate

Resumo

The flood risk determination we should put together flood hazard and vulnerability. Process develops analyzing exposure of human activity to flood hazard and consequences of it. For proper integration, we should develop a full picture of the flood hazard including climate change. The climate change impact on flood peaks estimate for the Sava River Basin and the So?a river basin, Climate change differ a lot even across relatively small river basin like The So?e River basin due to meteorological, geological and hydrological conditions. Downscaling, of maximum daily rainfall with 20 and 100 years return period from climate change models, was calculated by E-OBS data. Hydrological automatically calibrated model and simple correlation are used to calculate increase of flood discharges. Flood probability curves for periods of 30, 60 and 90 year ahead derived for different water stations. The frequency of flood discharges will increase significantly due the climate change. The impact differentiates according to hydrological and meteorological conditions. The increase is higher in mountainous regions and lower on alluvial plains and karst regions. Adaptation measures suggested according to future social development.

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