Aggregative Risk Evaluation in Regional Floodwater Utilization Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (PAP014641)

Código

PAP014641

Autores

Hongyuan Fang, Yintang Wang

Tema

Flood risk management in mega cities

Resumo

According to the characteristics of regional floodwater utilization measures such as reservoirs, flood detention areas and canal storages etc. and risk generating mechanism of these floodwater utilization measures, the analysis method synthesizing grade of risk and grade of importance is used for computing flood risk from floodwater utilization sub-regions and various utilizing measures. Based on the relationship between the risk of regional floodwater utilization and risk from the floodwater utilizing measures of sub-regions, the mathematical model, which can consider the fuzzy property of flood risk assessment, is proposed for evaluating the aggregative risk of floodwater utilization by using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The hierarchical structure and solving procedures of the model, synthesis analysis technique of grade of risk and grade of importance, as well as identifying method for the weights of fuzzy evaluating factors, are detailed. Finally, taking the Gaotang-Ahu Reservoir District in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province as example, the aggregative risk rate is computed using the proposed model for evaluating risk in the regional floodwater utilization.