Generalized Tool for Updating Intensity-Duration frequency Curves Under Climate Change (PAP015857)

Código

PAP015857

Autores

ANDRE SCHARDONG, Roshan K. Srivastav, Slobodan P. Simonovic

Tema

Urban Floods

Resumo

This paper presents a web based tool that integrates an user interface (UI) with an efficientmethodology to update the intensity duration frequency curves (IDF) considering the impact of climatechange. IDF curves are frequently used for design of urban drainage, road drainage, flood controlstructures. It is an expedient method to obtain design ietographs and does not require specificknowledge. The assumption is that the IDF used, should properly represents the hydrological conditionsduring the life time of the designed structure. The methodology consists of creating correlation throughspatial disaggregation and the use of transfer function from the historical data observed to the historicalscenarios from the global circulation models (GCM). In this study the statistical relationship between theobserved data and the GCM output is established for the base period. This relationship is applied onfuture period GCM scenarios to generate the updated IDF curves. The application of proposedmethodology and tool is applied at a metrological station located at the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Theresults obtained from the proposed methodology are compared with an existing IDF curves. The GCMmodel used in the analysis was the CanESM2 from Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.The results show an increasing trend of extreme precipitation compared to the IDF adjusted to the mostrecent data available.