Association of Landslides in the City of Blumenau With Accumulated Rainfall in the Region in 2013 Using Logistic Regression (PAP015022)

Código

PAP015022

Autores

Carolina de Lima Neves Seefelder, Carlos Henrique Ribeiro Lima, Lenora Nunes Ludolf Gomes, Sérgio Koide

Tema

Land use and Floods, landslides and erosion

Resumo

Landslide is a relevant natural disaster and the cause of significant economic and life losses worldwide. The understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for a landslide event has thus practical importance to establish the most vulnerable regions and to develop control measures such as alert systems. Qualitatively, literature has shown that cumulative rainfall plays a significant role on landslide events, with heavy rainfalls associated with a higher chance of slope instability. This study investigates and develops a model to associate the likelihood of landslides in the city of Blumenau with the accumulated rainfall in the region. A logistic regression is proposed to establish a model to the probability of a landslide event occurring as a function of the previous rainfall. The results reveal that the accumulated rainfall for the previous 24 hours tends to be the most relevant variable to predict the probability of a landslide event in Blumenau, with a threshold value of roughly 50 mm leading to probabilities above 50%.