Operational Flood Forecasting System to the Uruguay River Basin Using the Hydrological Model Mgb-Iph (PAP014801)

Código

PAP014801

Autores

Fernando Mainardi Fan, PAULO RÓGENES MONTEIRO PONTES, LAWSON FRANCISCO DE SOUZA BELTRAME, Walter Collischonn, Diogo Costa Buarque

Tema

Flood forecasting and early warning systems

Resumo

Operational hydrological forecasting systems are very valuable tools for disasters prevention, such as floods. These systems are especially important for basins that have a fast runoff component and no well-defined seasonality, which is the case of most river basins in the south of Brazil. Focusing this study cases, we present the development and up-to-date results of an operational flood forecasting system to the Uruguai river basin, located in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states, Brazil. The forecasting system is based on the MGB-IPH large scale hydrological model, and works with hourly time step. The system operates alone automatically generating experimental deterministic forecasts at some locations in the Uruguai river basin and results are automatically disposed in the internet everyday (www.ufrgs.br/lsh). We present the model forecasting results for the main floods that occurred since the system operation begin on July, 2013. This result show a good accordance with observed flows, but also motivates the research for more improvement, such as the addition of ensemble rainfall forecasts into the system.