Study on Probabilistic Disaster Risk Assessment and Management (PAP014773)

Código

PAP014773

Autores

Tsukizoe Megumi, Hitoshi Baba

Tema

Flood risk management in mega cities

Resumo

This paper proposes a new concept of Probabilistic Approach in disaster risk assessmentand management that could flexibly adapt the risk reduction plans and measures against intensifyingscale of disaster. The concept, in contrast to the previous method based on a deterministic scenario ofdisaster, was conceived from lessons of recent disasters including extreme events that reminded us theimportance of prospecting society?s safety in which it can inclusively target any probable scale of naturalphenomena.The previous method of disaster risk reduction, which in this study is denoted as the deterministicscenario based approach, proved that there are remaining challenges, for example in sharing truthfulinformation about extreme risk and its probability among local societies and communities.The new approach with probabilistic risk assessment should then provide risk managers with reliablemethodology of how to secure the local security level and how to plan the countermeasures consideringthe development policy of the local area, estimated future damage, cost effectiveness of disasterreduction investment, financial capacity of the society, robustness of the planned options, acceptability ofthe measures by community and other priority aspects such as poverty reduction and vulnerable peoplesprotection.For the first step, a new concept is created to consider multiple disaster scenarios including return periodand hazard scale which is necessary to set the target security level and select the appropriate optionswith their available financial and human resources. In the approach, we set the category of impactassessment based on wide range of hazard projection and adaptive planning with multiple scenarioselections, and then prospect the total image of disaster risk reduction in every scale of impact, using theprobability of each hazard. This approach enables to create strategic combination of structural and nonstructuralmeasures under redundant cooperation by various sectors including socio-economicdevelopment and infrastructures.