Nonstationarity of Floods in the Itajaí-Açu River, in Brazil (PAP014761)

Código

PAP014761

Autores

Artur Tiago Silva, Maria Manuela Portela, MAURO NAGHETTINI

Tema

Floods in a changing climate

Resumo

Nowadays there seems to be a consensus among the scienti?c community that, due to climate change, there is an intensi?cation of the hydrological cycle, which, coupled with evidence of the impact of persistent modes of regional climate variability, have led hydrologists to study hydrological extremes under nonstationarity. In this paper, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed exceedances is used to assess the influence of El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate indices in the flood regime of the Itajaí-Açu river, in Southern Brazil. The application of the POT approach has the advantage of being able to detect and model the influence of climate on the occurrence process of floods and their peak magnitudes separately.