Flood Risk Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Using a Detailed 1d/2d Coupled Model. Application to Barcelona Case Study (PAP014387)

Código

PAP014387

Autores

BENIAMINO RUSSO, PERE MALGRAT, Marc Velasco Droguet, HERNANI ANTONIO CIDADE MOURA THEIAS

Tema

Impact of climate change on flood risk

Resumo

In a context of high uncertainty about hydro-climatic variables, the development of updatedmethods to assess climate change impacts, is as important, if not more important, than the provision ofimproved climate change data. This paper shows the results achieved in the Barcelona case study in twointerdisciplinary projects funded by the European Commission in the framework of the 7th FP (CORFUand PREPARED projects). A detailed 1D/2D coupled model, simulating surface and sewer flows wasdeveloped for the Barcelona case study using Infoworks ICM version 3.5 by Innovyze. Special attentionwas paid to the hydraulic characterization of the inlet systems (representing the interface between surfaceand underground flows) using experimental expressions. The 2D domain covers 44 km2 of the city landinvolving 235 km of sewers, while 2D mesh counts more than 400,000 cells. Sewer and overland flowmodelling was calibrated and validated using data regarding 4 critical rainfall events occurred in 2011.Modelling speeding-up strategies focused on parallel processing, hardware advances and a specific codebased on fast graphic processing units (GPU), allow to obtain simulation results of the developed modelwith very short computational times (3-4 minutes). In this context, real time strategies and early warningsystems could be activated on the basis of the result of the developed coupled model. Once the coupledmodel was calibrated, it was used to assess the flood risk in the Raval District, (historically affected byflooding problems during heavy storms) for current and future scenarios. For the future scenarios, climatechange inputs were defined. Specifically, in order to quantify the impacts of climate changes on the RavalDistrict for the horizon 2050, 4 CO2 emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and B2) were considered and a searise of 0.20 m were considered.