Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model in the Xitiaoxi Catchment (PAP014384)

Código

PAP014384

Autores

Bo Pang, Lanying Zhang

Tema

Flood forecasting and early warning systems

Resumo

The Xitiaoxi catchment is one of the most important catchments of Tai lake basin. Thefrequent flood disasters have been the most serious problems in Tai lake basin due to increasingdrowned areas and economic loss. In this research, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model was appliedto Xitiaoxi catchment for better understanding of the flood generation process over the Tai lake basin.GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) method was selected to address VIC modelparameter estimation and uncertainty analysis, and its contribution on model simulation uncertainties. Theresults indicates that: (1) VIC model performs satisfactorily in daily discharge simulation of the Xitiaoxicatchment; (2) In the seven selected parameters, the variable infiltration curve parameter B and soil depthof the first soil layer d1 were more sensitive than others; (3) Contributions of parameter uncertainty onmodel simulation uncertainties are relatively high.