Foresight Evolution Trend of Flood Risk in the Taihu Basin and Its Proper Adaptation Strategies (PAP014333)

Código

PAP014333

Autores

Xiaotao Cheng, Haoyun Wu

Tema

Flood risk management in mega cities

Resumo

Taihu basin, located in the estuary areas of the Yangtze and Qiantang rivers, is one of the most important economic regions in China. It is easy to suffer from serious flood disasters caused by plum rains, typhoon and storm surge. Features of flood risk in the Taihu basin are very sensitive to both global warming and rapid urbanization. In order to provide the decision-making basis for adjusting flood management strategy in the Taihu basin, a flood risk scenario analysis system has been developed by joint efforts of China and UK experts from 2007 to 2010, consisting of a series of models of climate change impact analysis, social economic development forecast, flood losses assessment, hydrological analysis, flood simulation, dyke reliability evaluation and GIS based system integration. The results show that the flood risk growth will be faster than the economic growth in the Taihu basin during 2030 to 2050 because of the combined efforts of global warming and urbanization if we just continue the current flood control measures. The study has got continuing support by the National Key Technology R&D Program for the 12th Five-year Plan to explore the proper adaptation strategies. The presentation will introduce the progress of this research project.