RISK ASSESSMENT OF RAINFALL EVENTS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF NITEROI, STATE OF RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

Código

II-END0109

Autores

Monique de Faria Marins, André Luiz Belém, Fernanda Santa Barbara Vissirini, Bruno Serafini Sobral

Tema

Análises de riscos hidrológicos sociais, econômicos e/ou ambientais

Resumo

The variables involved in defining the impact degree and, consequently, the risk of a given rainfall event are many and depend on climatic information and on the characteristics inherent to the region for which the forecast is being made. Understanding the relationship between the behavior of the rains and the response of a given location to these events is essential in monitoring and decision making for sending alerts (adapted from Vissirini, 2018). Considering that risk can be defined as a result of multiplying the probability by the threat (Adams, 2009), hydrometeorological risk management should consider that the probability of an event occurring is related to its return period (T). All possible recurrence intervals can lead to economic damage and loss, which are generally low for events that occur frequently and high for events that are rare (GFDRR, 2017). Niteroi is a municipality in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro, located in the eastern portion of Guanabara Bay facing both the open ocean and the bay. It has many cliff areas with subnormal agglomerates of urban patches and the entire coastal plain has undergone an intense unsystematic urbanization process resulting in the soil sealing, rectification and engineering of rivers. As a result, the major impacts observed during the occurrence of rainfall events are landslides and floods. Thus, the present effort aims to introduce the methodology used to assess the risk of rainfall events in Niteroi between 2010 and 2019 (10 years) which caused hydrological and geological impacts in the municipality.