IMPACTO DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA VAZÃO E DESCARGA SÓLIDA EM SUSPENSÃO NA BACIA DO RIO DOCE

Código

ENES20200088

Autores

Franciélli de Paula Dela Costa, Diogo Costa Buarque, Lizandra Broseghini Foeger, João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda

Tema

11 - MODELAGEM HIDROSSEDIMENTOLÓGICA

Resumo

The evaluation of the effects of climate changes on flow and suspended sediments discharge can provide important information for the development of water resource management plans. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the flow and suspended sediments discharge on the Doce river basin, using the hydrosedimentological model MGB-SEDin associated with future projections of the Eta regional climate model downscaling nesting in the global climate models MIROC5, BESM, CanESM2. The emission scenarios considered are the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There is a tendency to reduce the flow and suspended sediments discharge towards the end of the 21st century (2071 - 2099) when compared to the period from 1998 to 2014 in the Doce River basin. The flow and suspended sediments discharge trends in the Doce river basin vary according to the RCP and the Eta-MIROC5, Eta-CanESM2 or Eta-BESM model. The average annual flow varies between -83% (151 m³/s) and -12% (773 m³/s) and the annual average suspended sediments discharge varies between -87% (500 10³t/ano) and -12% (3481 10³t/ano), according to Eta-CanESM2 for RCP 8.5 and Eta-MIROC5 for RCP 4.5, respectively. The results of this study can contribute to the management of water resources and sediments in the Doce river basin, being important for the creation of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of climate changes.