ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA ENTRE MODELOS DE PREVISÃO DE TURBIDEZ NO RIO DOCE

Código

PAP037

Autores

Camila Bergmann Goulart, Fernando Mainardi Fan

Tema

MEDIÇÃO, MODELAGEM, TÉCNICAS E TECNOLOGIAS NO CONTEXTO DA HIDROSSEDIMENTOLOGIA

Resumo

Land use by anthropic activities, such as agriculture and urbanization, increases soil erosion, also increasing the sediments that are transported to and by rivers. These sediments are responsible for several changes in water courses, including sedimentation of reservoirs and elevation of turbidity (due to suspended sediments). The Doce River basin,the present research case study, runs through the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo (Brazil), being a basin with a large sediment yield and a history of sedimentation problems in reservoirs. At the Doce River basin there was also the rupture of a tailings dam in Mariana (MG), in November 2015. This disaster increased the levels of turbidity of the basin, creating difficulties to pump and treat its water to supply the municipalities of the region. Due to the mentioned factors, turbidity simulation models were developed in order to estimate the turbidity at points of interest. The present work aimed to analyze and compare the performance of three prognostic models for the Doce River and its main tributaries. With this purpose, turbidity data was selected at measurement stations a long the basin, between 1997 and 2010, covering the calibration and validation periods. After applying the models, a comparative analysis was performed, based on defined error statistics, to evaluate performance. Thus, it was concluded that all three models have adequate performance throughout the basin, each one standing out in relation to the others according to the application region (Upper, Middle and Lower Doce River). The definition of its use will depend on the possibility of acquiring data, as well as the area of interest with in the basin.