ANÁLISE DO TEMPO DE RETORNO DAS INUNDAÇÕES DO RIO TAQUARI NO MUNICÍPIO DE LAJEADO - RS

Código

END180

Autores

Sofia Royer Moraes, Rafael Rodrigo Eckhardt, GUILHERME GARCIA DE OLIVEIRA, Cláudio Mendes Júnior, Jerusa da Silva Peixoto

Tema

1 - Previsão e mapeamento de inundações

Resumo

The objective of the study is to calculate the probability of occurrence and the time of return of flood levels of the Taquari river in the city of Lajeado - State of Rio Grande do Sul. To perform this work, the records of floods and floods in the municipality of Lajeado were consolidated, in the period from 1940 to 2015, made available by the Porto Fluvial Estrela, NIH - Univates and ANEEL. The calculations of the probability of occurrence and turnaround time, were calculated using the method of distribution of the extreme values of Weibull and Log Pearson Type III. In Lajeado city considers the orthometric height of 13 m as the reference level of the Taquari river, which overflows causing flooding from the level of 19 m. Since 1940, the 19m level has been exceeded 87 times, indicating a recurrence greater than one flood per year. The time-of-return analysis indicates the probability of a flood occurring each year. For the level of 21 m the analysis indicated a flood with a time of return of 1.55 years, while the 25m level, has a return time of 6.48 years and, to an extreme level, such as the flood of 1941, which exceeded 29 m, the return time is 166.67 years.