TOWARDS A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR BRAZIL'S NATIONAL REGISTRY OF MUNICIPALITIES SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH-IMPACT LANDSLIDES, FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS

Código

V-END_II-EBHE0107

Autores

Cássio Guilherme Rampinelli, SAULO AIRES DE SOUZA, Rafael Pereira Machado, Érico de Castro Borges, Frederico do Monte Seabra, LUCAS MIKOSZ, Charles Silva de Aguiar, Wolney Aparecido Wolff Barreiros, MAGNO GONÇALVES DA COSTA, Rodrigo de Morais Arrais Balduino de Oliveira

Tema

06 - Gestão de Risco e de Desastres: planejamento, adaptação e prevenção;

Resumo

Strategic disaster risk management in Brazil requires robust analytical instruments to prioritize vulnerable areas among its 5,570 municipalities. This study proposes the Municipal Registration and Prioritization Index (ICPM), a dynamic, multidimensional metric designed to support the National Registry of Susceptible Municipalities under the National Protection and Civil Defense Policy (PNPDEC). The ICPM integrates physical exposure across three disaster typologies (landslides, floods, and flash floods) using historical data from the S2iD database, institutional vulnerability via the Municipal Capacity Index (ICM), and prospective climate change trends derived from regional correction factors for extreme precipitation. Using sensitivity analysis and a dynamic dashboard, the optimal cut-off threshold for the ICPM can be evaluated. Furthermore, the modular architecture of the typological sub-indices provides exceptional governance flexibility, allowing sector-specific policies to utilize targeted rankings. To promote this framework, an interactive public dashboard was developed, facilitating dynamic sensitivity assessments, ranking exploration, and transparent data export. This combination of analytical development, operational flexibility, and dashboard transparency elevates the ICPM into a robust effective instrument for national civil defense and climate adaptation planning, promoting an open and participatory process for its continuous refinement.