RECORD EXTREME FLOWS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL CAN BE MORE COMMON THAN EXPECTED

Código

XXVI-SBRH1042

Autores

Stefany Gonçalves Lima, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Vinícius Kuchinski

Tema

STE138 - Entre Secas, Inundações e Deslizamentos: Análises e Reflexões Sobre Grandes Desastres no Brasil

Resumo

The catastrophic floods that occurred in South Brazil, in 2023 and 2024 reached unprecedented flow records, overcoming historical expectations of frequency and magnitude for the region. We investigate the magnitude of such events in comparison to world flood extremes using data from over 19,500 gauging stations available in several global streamflow datasets covering decades of observations. Brazil stands out as the country with most records of extreme flows in the world. Notably, southern Brazil accounts for around 31% of the global records for peak flows exceeding the classic Creager enveloping curve, a benchmark for unusual flows. These results suggest that record floods can be more common than expected in this region and highlight the need for regionalized hydrological analyses to inform evidence-based prevention strategies and emergency response planning.