System Dynamics Modeling of a Complex Water System in Barretos, São Paulo

Código

XXVI-SBRH0439

Autores

Carolina Stager Quaggio, DIDIER GASTMANS, Jan Boll

Tema

F - Processos Hidrológicos e Monitoramento Integrado de Recursos Hídricos

Resumo

Interactions among components of the hydrologic cycle determine the intensity, pathways, and exchanges of water between atmospheric, surface, and subsurface reservoirs. Together, these components constitute a Complex Water System (CWS), where the interconnection between reservoirs promotes constant adaptation. A System Dynamic (SD) model a CWS in the municipality of Barretos was developed to simulate groundwater storage and evaluate potential hydrogeological context-related scenarios. Barretos is one of the largest cities in the northeastern region of the State of São Paulo State. SD is a modeling methodology that focuses on system behavior by conceptualizing and explaining the causality between multidisciplinary components through stocks and flows. The Barretos System Dynamic (BSD) model aimed to simulate the storage of the three main groundwater sources, namely the sandy and unconfined Bauru Aquifer (BAS), the fractured and semi-confined Serra Geral Aquifer (SGAS), and the sandy and confined Guarani Aquifer (GAS). The hydrogeological processes represented in the model are river-aquifer interaction, unconfined and semi-confined aquifer interaction, groundwater pumping, recharge, land use, and water pricing. Despite numerical differences between the actual well elevations used in validation and the modeled water available in the aquifers' stocks, the model simulates the observed behavior of groundwater depletion in the aquifers. From a water management perspective, the results demonstrate the need for more reliable monitoring data and an urgent need to reduce and optimize water demand.