Assessment impact of climate change based on the tracing of non-stationary IDF curves in the municipality of Juiz de Fora MG

Código

I-EBHE0212

Autores

João Pedro Tanaka da Silva, Celso Bandeira de Melo Ribeiro, Daniele Feitoza Silva

Tema

WG 1.03: Urban Water - Urbanization phenomenon & adequate water management

Resumo

Climate change has several impacts on society, including an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, causing flooding and urban flooding. The sizing of urban drainage devices is traditionally carried out by drawing Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves, using observed data and stationary conditions. However, with climate change, the exclusive use of such traditional methodologies may not accurately represent changes in precipitation regimes. As a measure of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of non-stationarity and the mapping of future IDF curves are mentioned, which aim to quantify extreme precipitation events in different greenhouse gas release mitigation scenarios. In this sense, the present study aims to trace historical and future IDF curves in stationary and non-stationary conditions in the city of Juiz de Fora - MG using the Equidistance Quantile Matching and Equidistance Quantile Matching Non-Stationary methodologies, using data from the climate model. MRI-ESM2-0 in SSP12.6, SSP37.0 and SSP58.5 scenarios (optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic). Non-stationary behavior was observed only in future simulations of the SSP58.0 scenario, indicating the maintenance of no trends in precipitation in the other scenarios. In relation to the historical IDF, the optimistic scenario showed a decrease both in terms of intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. However, the SSP37.0 and SSP58.5 scenarios indicated an increase in precipitation (3.4% and 18.7% in 24-hour and 100-year return time events, respectively) and an increase in frequency. It is expected that the historical events of 24 hours and 100 years of return time will occur with a return time of 79 years, in the SSP37.0 scenario, and 35 years, in the SSP58.5 scenario, by the end of the 21st century . Such results indicate the urgent need to adopt debates and adaptation measures to climate change in social, academic and institutional spheres.