Impact of Compound Extreme Events on Population Exposure in India

Código

I-EBHE0127

Autores

JEW DAS, MANIKANTA VELPURI, Nanduri Venkata Umamahesh

Tema

WG 2.1: Drought in the Anthropocene

Resumo

India faces a variety of climate extremes, including floods, droughts, and heat waves. However, the simultaneous occurrence of these events remains understudied. This analysis projects changes in five compound extremes under three emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) using outputs from thirteen GCMs under the CMIP6 experiment. Five compound events namely coincident heat waves and droughts (C1), coincident heat waves and extreme precipitation (C2), sequential droughts and extreme precipitation (S1), sequential heat waves and droughts (S2), and sequential heat waves and extreme precipitation (S3) are considered in the present study. Combined with population projections for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5, the study examines the number of people exposed to these extremes during 2021-2060 (T1) and 2061-2100 (T2). Results indicate a future increase in all compound extremes, with the highest exposure (2.51 to 4.96 times historical levels) under SSP3-7.0 for concurrent heat waves and droughts. Central Northeast India is projected to experience the greatest exposure, while hilly regions will face the least. The increase in exposure is driven by climate change, population growth, and their interactions, highlighting the need for sustainable climate mitigation and adaptation policies.