Impact of Parameter Estimation Methods on Pearson Type III Distribution for Analyzing Long-Return Period Streamflows

Código

I-EBHE0103

Autores

Wagner Pansera, Benedito Martins Gomes

Tema

WG 1.10: Hydrologic Design - Solutions & Communication

Resumo

Accurate estimation of maximum design discharge is essential for understanding critical hydrological conditions associated with specific return periods. Inadequate hydrological criteria can lead to severe consequences, including loss of human life and extensive infrastructure damage. This study focuses on the Iguaçu River Basin, where at-site flood frequency analysis was performed using the Pearson Type III (PE3) distribution. A crucial aspect of using PE3 is the selection of the most appropriate parameter estimation method, as this significantly affects the estimated quantiles, particularly in the distribution's tail. This research evaluates the impact of three parameter estimation methods ? L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacing ? on determining discharges for return periods of 100, 1000, and 10000 years in the Iguaçu River Basin. The findings of this study provide valuable guidelines for improving the accuracy of PE3 distribution fitting for extreme flood estimates in the region.