Drought changes, trends, duration, and frequency assessments using weather time series data, coupled model inter-comparison project phase 6, and coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment: a case study for Gulf of Guinea region (west Africa)

Código

I-EBHE0069

Autores

LAMBONI

Tema

WG 1.14: Droughts in Mountain Regions

Resumo

In recent years, severe drought-related disasters in West Africa have received increased attention. Assessing drought variations was critical to ensure agricultural activities, social development, and human health. This study investigated the trend and change in temperature, rainfall and drought events in historical (1981?2010) and future (RCP8.5 and SSP585, 2041-2070) periods in Gulf of Guinea Region based on observations, model simulations from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Return periods of multiple drought characteristics for each scenario were assessed by using the copula-based joint distribution. Results indicated an increase in the projected temperature while rainfall will likely decrease. The drought duration and severity are shown to increase based on the CMIP6 and CORDEX projections compared with historical periods. Based on the joint analysis of the duration, and severity of meteorological drought, return periods in the future indicated increased risks. Under global warming, extreme drought events with long duration and high intensity were shown to occur more frequently in the future, especially under the RCP8.5 scenarios. Results can aid in the understanding and characterization of drought events for drought risk management under global warming.