Prediction of Short-Term Flooding Using Flood Routing at the Polgolla Reservoir in Sri Lanka

Código

I-EBHE0030

Autores

Ashvin Kamal Wickramasooriya, Poornima Dissanayake

Tema

WG 1.12: Development & application of river basin simulators

Resumo

Flood routing is an essential technique in flood prediction, playing a crucial role in understanding and managing flood peak reduction and the duration of elevated water levels. These tasks fall under the broader fields of hydrology and hydraulics. The focus of this study is the application of the Muskingum method to evaluate the dynamics of inflow and outflow discharge at the Polgolla reservoir, located within Sri Lanka's Mahaweli river basin. The method used in this study combines the lumped continuity equation with the linear storage equation expressed, respectively, as S = K[xI + (1-x)Q]. Where S is the storage volume, I is the inflow discharge, and Q is the outflow discharge, It relies on parameters such as x and K, which represent weighting factors and the time of concentration, respectively. The Muskingum method is a widely recognized hydrologic routing technique used to estimate flow characteristics in rivers or reservoirs. These parameters are determined through the least squares method, a statistical approach that minimizes the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and estimated values. Applying the Muskingum method, this study aims to provide accurate estimates of inflow and outflow discharge at the Polgolla reservoir. This information is crucial for flood forecasting operations and the implementation of effective flood protection initiatives. By understanding the intricacies of inflow and outflow dynamics, authorities can better anticipate flood events and develop robust flood control measures. These measures are vital for minimizing the impact of floods on communities and ecosystems. The implications of this study extend beyond the Polgolla reservoir. The Muskingum method is applicable to various river basins, making it a versatile tool for flood routing purposes globally. Insights derived from this research can help flood management authorities and engineers devise more effective flood control strategies. These strategies are essential for bolstering flood protection measures in vulnerable areas, thereby reducing the risk and impact of flooding. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of employing accurate and reliable methods for flood prediction and management. With the increasing frequency and severity of flood events due to climate change, the need for advanced flood forecasting tools and techniques has never been more critical. The Muskingum method, with its proven reliability and applicability, represents a significant step forward in this regard. In conclusion, this study provides invaluable information and tools for enhancing flood forecasting and management practices. By leveraging the insights gained from the application of the Muskingum method, communities and ecosystems in flood-prone regions can benefit from improved flood protection measures. Ultimately, the study contributes to the broader goal of reducing the adverse impacts of flooding and enhancing the resilience of vulnerable areas.