Future Hydrokinetic Potential of the Amazon under the influence of Climate Change and Land Use and Cover

Código

I-EBHE0002

Autores

Josias da Silva Cruz, Claudio Jose Cavalcante Blanco, Antonio C. P. Brasil Junior, Leonardo Melo de Mendonça

Tema

WG 1.04: From local to large scale human-water dynamics

Resumo

The objective is to evaluate the future hydrokinetic potential of the Amazon. Thus, three GCM models from CMIP6 (CESM2, MIROC6, MRI-ESM2) and two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were considered to obtain future rainfall data. These rainfalls were used to simulate future streamflows, considering the future LULC model until 2050. The streamflow simulation was developed using the HEC-HMS platform. With the simulated flows, it was possible to simulate the velocities using a model available in the literature. The hydrokinetic powers were determined, considering river depths, which would allow hydrokinetic turbines with larger diameters to be equipped. Lower values of power coefficients were considered, aiming to simulate situations less favorable to hydroelectric production. In this context, the determined future hydrokinetic potentials are greater than the current hydrokinetic potential for the Amazonia. This finding supports the generation of electrical energy through hydrokinetic plants, especially in a scenario of climate crisis and energy transition, being a good option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which are generated by the consumption of fossil fuels in the most diverse sectors of society (industrial, rural and urban); and also, in the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants. However, hydrokinetic plant projects in a region as sensitive as the Amazon, even more sensitive due to climate change, cannot do without environmental and social impact studies.