River flow forecasting methods: A review

Código

XXV-SBRH1261

Autores

Mateo Hernández Sánchez, Marcus Nóbrega Gomes Júnior, Maria de Andrade Rocha Alencar Castro, Eduardo Mário Mendiondo

Tema

24 - Planejamento e Gestão de Recursos Hídricos

Resumo

The climate change condition is the challenge of that the researchers of water resources management have faced in the lastly years. In in order to have good administration of the water resources is important an accurate and reliable forecast of river flow, either to avoid the damage generated by a flood, or to manage the water resource in an optimal way (specially in arid zones) or to know how to improve the quality of the hydraulic resource for a specific use. This article is an examine of the state of the art of the real-time modeling and urban channel?s or river?s state estimation using model predictive control (MPC), for analyze the different techniques develop for the researchers and identified their advantage and disadvantage. As a result, was found models that are based in statistic and heuristic methods and physically-based model. Although these methods of forecasting have been developed in the past few years with a great increasing in the accuracy level, the level of uncertainty remain little high, showing opportunities for improvement and the found of new challenges to overcome.