Is The Future Hot And Dry? An Assessment Of Moisture-Temperature Couplings In Brazil Under Climate Change Scenarios

Código

XXV-SBRH1256

Autores

Marcos Roberto Benso, Gabriela Gesualdo, PEDRO GUSTAVO CAMARA DA SILVA, Greicelene J. Da Silva, Eduardo Mário Mendiondo

Tema

22 - Mudanças Climáticas, Adaptabilidade e Impactos

Resumo

The compound effect of temperature and moisture is a critical factor impacting food production and overall water availability. However, climate extremes resilience of food production is usually analyzed as a single hazard problem. This paper aims to depict the capacity of agricultural systems to cope with temperature-moisture hazards under climate change scenarios. We characterized the main soybean and maize second cycle producing regions in Brazil according to temperature and precipitation seasonalities, this classification was used to define crop calendars. The procedure was applied to observed meteorological conditions using the Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR-DWGD) and future projections using the Climate Change Dataset for Brazil (CLIMBra) a moderate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) and a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). We selected climate models according to their ability to reproduce historical conditions, therefore, we concluded that UKESM-1.0, K.ACE and HadGEM3.GC3.1 are the most adequate climate change models for Brazilian agriculture. Under climate change scenarios, little to no change in couplings is observed in Spring (SON) and Summer (DJF). However, during Autum (MAM), couplings tend to intensify increasing drought risk in south Brazil. Reducing precipitation in MAM can increase the suitability of double-cropping systems in Cerrado.