INUNDATION PROJECTED UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE WITHIN THE CURUAI FLOODPLAIN

Código

XXV-SBRH0541

Autores

Pauline Enguehard, Pedro Torres Miranda, Alice César Fassoni de Andrade, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Ayan Santos Fleischmann, Frédéric Frappart, Frédéric Satgé, MARIE-PAULE BONNET

Tema

STE24 - Recursos hídricos da Amazônia

Resumo

Access to water and aquatic ecosystems preservation are among the most important challenges of the 21st century. Hydrodynamic and aquatic ecosystems are dependent on water fluxes in the river and in the floodplains. However, due to their difficult access, these fluxes are poorly understood and a limited amount of data is available to study them. Predictions of flows in rivers and floodplains help to develop sustainable management of water resources and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Curuai floodplain, at local and global scales. Different climate change scenarios in the Amazon can be used to analyse the hydrodynamic flow response in the floodplain. The MGB software allows access to daily flow data in main rivers of Amazon. The initial simulations are made on 20-year runs from the year 2021 to get the general trend of the discharge evolution in rivers. Three of the twenty-eight possible climate models will be used for the discharge scenarios implementation to conduct a significant effect study of the best (95%), intermediate (50%) and worst (5%) climate model. From the general trend obtained with these three climate models, we will choose three years of interest to study the hydrodynamic effects. Three consecutive 2-year simulations for each of the three climate models will give access to river discharge scenarios. Then, the HEC-RAS software will be used to refine the hydrological inputs in the Curuai floodplain by distributing diffuse discharge in the catchments. With a fine resolution, a local prediction of the hydrodynamic movements can be made.