Water security in a changing climate: different realities but the same old problem

Código

XXIV-SBRH0604

Autores

Jullian Souza Sone, Thamiris Fontoura de Araujo, Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira, Edson Cezar Wendland, André Simões Ballarin

Tema

SE01.C - Relações entre o nexo água-alimento-energia e os serviços ecossistêmicos ligados aos recursos hídricos: novas perspectivas e abordagens na hidrologia

Resumo

The global population has been exposed to increasing water scarcity. In Brazil, extreme vents have already exacerbated water conflicts at a basin and city scales due to the depletion of water ecosystem services. Here, we assessed water security in two distinct basins but strategical for water supply in urban areas: Guariroba River basin located on the rural side of Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, and the Jaguari River basin located in Extrema, Minas Gerais. We adopted the blue water scarcity and vulnerability indicators for comparing the future water security between the two basins. An ensemble of seven global circulation models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 was used for simulating the impacts of three scenarios on the basins' hydrological response until 2100. We also considered three alternative water demand scenarios. Critical water scarcity and vulnerability indices were observed in the Guariroba basin even with decreased demand. Considering the current demand, the Jaguari basin is highly susceptible to not meeting the water demand by 2100. This study reveals the urgent need for effective measures to tackle the current depletion of water resources to overcome the challenges of uncertainties related to climate change.