Impact of Climate Change on Large Catchment Hydrology of Yangtze River Basin (PAP014724)

Código

PAP014724

Autores

Huanghe Gu, Zhongbo Yu, Jigan Wang

Tema

Impact of climate change on flood risk

Resumo

This paper presents estimates of water resources changes in Yangtze River Basin associated with climate change. The present climate (1970-1999) and future climate (2070-2099) at SRES A1B scenario are simulated by Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) at a spatial resolution of 50×50 km and used to force a large-scale hydrological model. The RegCM4 model shows good performance on not only the annual average but also the extreme events of temperature and precipitation. Most of the Yangtze River Basin in China stands out as hotspots" of climate change, with an annual temperature increase of about 3° and an annual precipitation increase of 5-10% predicted, also with the strongest increase of daily rain intensity, maximum 5-day rain amount, and the number of consecutive dry days in China, suggesting increased risks of both floods and droughts. The climate scenario is based on model output from the European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5). The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) is used to examine changes in stream flow at various locations throughout the Yangtze River Basin. Average stream flow, peak flows, low flows, and several water balance terms are evaluated for both the present and future period. The results reveal a distinct contrast between those periods. More floods and droughts are predicted at the end of 21st century."