Assessing Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts of a Flood Event Through the Integration of Spatial and Computable General Equilibrium Modelling (PAP014687)
Carrera Lorenzo, Gabriele Standardi, Francesco Bosello, Jaroslav Mysiak
Floods in a changing climate
An integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of flooding is developed and tested. The methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at sub-national scale. The model is tested on a flood event that occurred along the Po river, in Northern Italy in October 2000. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, a sensitivity analysis is performed including three disruption duration scenarios and two post-disaster recovery scenarios. Results confirm that indirect losses are significant, and the model is able to capture both positive and negative economic effects of a disaster in different areas of the same country.