What If the Dutch Started Worrying About Flood Risk? (PAP014414)

Código

PAP014414

Autores

Trond Grytli Husby, Reinhard Mechler, Brenden Jongman

Tema

Impact of climate change on flood risk

Resumo

The roles and responsibilities of the public sector in ?ood risk management are under debate. Partially allocating risk to the private sector can promote individual mitigation behaviour but it can also result in distributional effcts. In this paper we analyse the macroeconomic effcts from a public-private transfer of risk in the Netherlands using a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium model. We ?nd that the a transfer of risk to the private sector leads to an up to 5 percent decrease in capital destruction but only to a negligible decrease in casualties in case of a ?ood. Long-term impacts from a ?ood on government ?nances are reduced by the risk transfer, but our results suggest that there are welfare losses among households residing in risky regions.