Assessment of a Real-Time Flood Forecasting at the Doce River Basin: Summer 2013 Event (PAP015040)
ARTUR JOSE SOARES MATOS, ELIZABETH GUELMAN DAVIS, ALESSANDRO JOSÉ DA SILVA, Ivete Souza de Almeida, Marcio de Oliveira Candido
Flood forecasting and early warning systems
The Geological Survey of Brazil- CPRM manages a flood warning system in the Doce riverbasin, which is located in Southeastern Brazil between the states of Minas Gerais (MG) and EspíritoSanto (ES). In summer of 2013 the worst flood that happened was on city of Colatina-ES. This townsuffered the second greatest flood in the recorded history. It was observed that the active atmosphericevents in this period were SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone) and HCZ (Humidity ConvergenceZone). The study of the rainfall in this basin has shown that in some places it rained four times more thanexpected, such as the region near the city of Rio Bananal, which registered an accumulated rainfall of942mm for December 2013. The historical average (1977-2006), according to CPRM (2014), for thisregion is 206 mm of rain for the month of December, so it rained 457% of expected rainfall. The RioBananal monitoring station, located in this city, recorded a rainfall of 280mm in just one day. During thisperiod, 79 hydrological warning bulletins were issued by CPRM. For the real time forecast in Colatina citywas used a discharge-discharge model, which provides a pretty accurate level of the river with six hoursin advance. The data used as input in the model comes from an automatic telemetric station. The RioDoce basin system warning completes 17 years of operation in this rainy season of 2013/2014 and it hasbeen crucial in the flood warning for cities monitored, minimizing the negative impacts of floods duringcritical events.