Climate Change and Floods in Paraná River Basin (PAP014788)
KATIUCIA NASCIMENTO ADAM, Fernando Mainardi Fan, PAULO RÓGENES MONTEIRO PONTES, Juan Martin Bravo, Walter Collischonn
Floods in a changing climate
The Paraná River basin is a major river system in Latin America, with a total area of approximately 800.000 km², it is situated over six Brazilian states (Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Distrito Federal), being especially important for hydropower generation (including Itaipu dam), agriculture, and human water supply. These water resources uses depends on the rivers and climate issues at the basin. Therefore for better water resources management it is important the knowledge of hydrological processes and its possible responses to climate changes. This study presents the use of the MGB-IPH distributed hydrological model to assess the impact of climate changes on extreme streamflow (floods) for several control points across the Paraná River basin. Projections of temperature and precipitation, from the ETA40 Regional Climate Model (RCM), under A1B emission scenario, were used to run the hydrological model. The simulated annual maximum discharges were analyzed throughout four 30-year's time-slices (1960-1990, 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Results indicate that for most analyzed points the climate projections results in an increase of simulated maximum floods. However considerable variations are showed by different model members, return periods, and basins locations. Considerations are made about uncertainties associated with data and employed methods.