The Dutch Delta Model for Policy Analysis on Flood Risk Management in the Netherlands (PAP014418)

Código

PAP014418

Autores

R. M. Slomp, R.M. Slomp, E. F. W. Ruijgh, Timo Kroon, E. Snippen, J. S. L. J. van Alphen

Tema

Floods in a changing climate

Resumo

The Netherlands is located in a delta where the rivers Rhine, Meuse, Scheldt and Eems drain into theNorth Sea. Over the centuries floods have been caused by high river discharges, storms, and ice dams.In view of the changing climate the probability of flooding is expected to increase. Moreover, as the socioeconomicdevelopments in the Netherlands lead to further growth of private and public property, thepossible damage as a result of flooding is likely to increase even more. The increasing flood risk has ledthe government to act, even though the Netherlands has not had a major flood since 1953.An integrated policy analysis study has been launched by the government called the Dutch DeltaProgramme. The Delta model is the integrated and consistent set of models to support long-termanalyses of the various decisions in the Delta Programme. The programme covers the Netherlands, andincludes flood risk analysis and water supply studies. This means the Delta model includes models forflood risk management as well as fresh water supply. In this paper we will discuss the models for floodrisk management.The issues tackled were: consistent climate change scenarios for all water systems, consistent measuresover the water systems, choice of the same proxies to evaluate flood probabilities and the reduction ofcomputation and analysis time.