Identification for the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow in Xitiaoxi River Basin, China (PAP014388)

Código

PAP014388

Autores

Dingzhi Peng, Linghua Qiu, Hejuan Lin

Tema

Impact of climate change on flood risk

Resumo

As the crucial headwaters of Taihu Lake basin, Xitiaoxi River basin was chosen as the study case. Under the significance level 5%, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, Moving T test, Yamamoto and the residual mass curve combined rank test methods were applied to comparative analyze the change-point of precipitation and streamflow from 1972 to 2010 in the basin. It found that the change-point of precipitation and streamflow time series both happened at the year 1999 in the basin. Two approaches (double mass curve and hydrological sensitivity-based methods) were used to quantitatively identify the impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow based on abrupt change analysis. The results obtained by using two approaches were verified each other, and it showed that the factors of climate change attribute to 21%~28% and human activities 72%~79% of total impact. Human activities attribution is dominant and it is the most considerable cause for the variation of hydrological processes in the basin.