I END - Encontro Nacional de Desastres da ABRH

Data: 25/07/2018 à 27/07/2018
Local: Porto Alegre-RS
Mais informações: https://www.abrh.org.br/iend

AVALIAÇÃO DO USO DE PRECIPITAÇÕES PROVENIENTES DE REANÁLISE PARA RECONSTRUÇÃO HIDROLÓGICA E HIDRODINÂMICA DE EVENTO EM BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA NO SUL CATARINENSE (BRASIL)

Autores

Franciele Maria Vanelli, Sly Wongchuig Correa, JOEL AVRUCH GOLDENFUM, Fernando Mainardi Fan

Tema

6 - Estudos de caso de grandes desastres

Resumo

Over the decades, maximum extreme hydrological events have reached Brazilian municipalities causing tangible and intangible damage. To understand these events, the hydrological and hydrodynamic reconstruction aims to represent the past event in order to study the importance of the forcing agents involved and their interactions, as well as the catchment?s behavior. However, lack of data may compromise these studies. A recently applied method in hydrology that may assist in obtaining past data refers to the use of reanalysis, which is the constant reprocessing of observations using models and data assimilation methods. The present study aims to analyze if the precipitation data obtained by climate reanalysis can complement the information for hydrological and hydrodynamic reconstruction of a historical flood occurred in March 1974 in Tubarão city, SC. The object of study is a catchment with an area of approximately 6000 km². For this area, precipitations obtained from the reanalysis product ERA-20CM were compared with observed precipitation data and used as input to the MGB-IPH hydrological model, with the resulting hydrographs compared to in-situ flow observations. Analyzing the precipitation occurred in March 1974, it is possible to identify that the reanalysis data present values that are underestimated in relation to the observed data, mainly on the days of more intense rains. Applying precipitation data as forcing in the MGB-IPH model, simulated hydrographs were obtained that were compared to the observed hydrograph from the local rating curve. In the analysis of March 1974, the applied performance measures point to the underestimation of values of the simulated flows from the precipitation data of the reanalysis in relation to the observed data. In this case, the climate reanalysis were insufficient as an alternative for use in hydrological and hydrodynamic reconstruction of the extreme event that occurred in March 1974 in Tubarão city, SC.

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